Predicting Politics

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To predict global policy developments over the next thirty years, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita employs game theoretic models, demonstrating their application in business and significant American foreign policy initiatives. Utilizing data from 1948, he illustrates how these models successfully predicted the end of the Cold War. He then analyzes data from 1980 across approximately one hundred countries to simulate future scenarios, particularly regarding democratization. His findings indicate that the wave of democratization seen in the late 1980s and early 1990s was foreseeable based on data available in 1980. While he presents concerning predictions about Russia and China's domestic situations, he also offers a unique perspective on Russia's struggle to attract investment and achieve growth rates typical of democratic nations. Despite being more democratic than in 1980, Russia has lagged in democratization compared to the global standard, lacking the essential elements of property rights, rule of law, and transparent governance necessary for investment attraction. Bueno de Mesquita's analysis of policy situations through game theory not only elucidates past and present events but also equips readers with the tools to make their own informed predictions about future foreign policies.