A tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries. It argues that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers.
Offers a comprehensive overview of what the science of psychology can tell us about intuition - where it comes from, how it works, whether we can trust it. The author finds that intuition is a normal and important component of thought that has its roots in processes of tacit learning.
Presents a wide range of forecasting methods useful for undergraduate or graduate students majoring in business management, economics, or engineering. Develops skills for selecting the proper methodology. Integrates forecasting with the planning and decision-making activities within an organization. Methods of forecasting include: decomposition, regression analysis, and econometrics. Stresses the strengths and weaknesses of the individual methods in various types of organizational areas. Numerous examples are included.