The Experts Speak

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Did you ever feel that the experts might not be as knowledgeable as they claim? Historical misjudgments abound, such as Irving Fisher's prediction of a "permanently high plateau" for stocks just before the 1929 crash, or Decca's dismissal of the Beatles in 1962. From the belief that Civil War films wouldn’t succeed to the skepticism about Japanese cars in the 1960s, experts have consistently missed the mark. Notably, the president of Digital Equipment Corporation asserted in 1977 that home computers were unnecessary, and The Wall Street Journal confidently predicted in 1995 that Bill Clinton would lose to any competent Republican. This work systematically catalogs these miscalculations, misunderstandings, and outright errors from experts across various fields, including economics, politics, and science. In this expanded edition, the collection illustrates the vast scope of expert misjudgment while also offering a reflective narrative on human knowledge. It explores the contrast between what was believed and what has been proven true, revealing the limitations of expert insight throughout history.