Agent-Based Simulation of Vulnerability Dynamics

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This thesis presents an innovative research approach by applying concepts and methods of complex systems to risk research, effectively bridging theoretical, empirical, and methodological barriers. It integrates these fields into a comprehensive framework for addressing uncertainty in socio-ecological systems. The developed agent-based simulation focuses on the dynamics of social vulnerability along the German North Sea Coast, offering an analytical method to investigate individual, relational, and spatial factors that contribute to societal vulnerability. By combining complexity science with risk research, the simulation highlights the significance of understanding interrelations within the system for its development. Through a vulnerability assessment that examines characteristics, current risk behaviors, and self-protection preferences of households facing flooding and storm surges, the research explores potential system trajectories via simulation experiments. This system-analytical approach enhances the integrated understanding of multi-dimensional and context-sensitive social phenomena like vulnerability. Additionally, it provides conceptually and strategically relevant insights for both risk research and complex systems research.