Gerhard Gehrig Books

This publication contains the final results of an econometric research based on a model generator. It shows the complete system of models for West and East Germany. With this system of models simulations have been performed with a basic and an optimistic scenario to show the economic development in both parts of the FRG until the year 2005. Interesting conclusions for improving economic policy in developing East Germany and for keeping the social market economy alive in the long run can be derived by the results and the comparison of these model applications. The publication should encourage politicians to tackle future economic difficulties much more by means of econometric models than in the past which would help to avoid economic failures. Using econometric models is an important precondition for not overtaxing the economy and for an efficient development of the Neue Länder at the same time.

This publication is a further result of a joint research with mainly W. Welfe on economies in transition financed by the European Community. To analyse and forecast the German economy a system of models for the old and new lands has been established. Forecasts are done by simulations. This part of the results contains a multi-variate time series analysis and the West German money and capital market with 50 equations. The demand for labour will be shown broken down to industries, qualification levels and sex by 40 equations. A sensitivity analysis has been applied to the structure of the model for the German economy. In addition, a simulation on an optimistic scenario shows the economic development of the two German economies up to the year 2000. Finally, a model to connect foreign trade with the system of models shows an application for Poland and Slovakia also by a simulation.