The role of the European Union in Moldova's Transnistria conflict

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Since 1 January 2007, Moldova has been a direct neighbour of the European Union, yet it, along with the Russia-dominated geopolitics of the Black Sea region, receives relatively little attention in the West. This oversight is surprising given the significant political divisions and unresolved conflicts in the area, notably the Transnistria conflict. This study contributes to the limited research and policy agenda on Moldova, incorporating findings from research trips to Moldova, Transnistria, and neighboring countries. Initially, it reassesses the Transnistria conflict, revealing that it primarily stems from a clash of elites and geopolitical interests rather than ethnic tensions. The second part examines the EU's interests, official stance, actual impact, and potential role in Moldova's internal separatist conflict and its external tensions with Russia. Currently, the EU's involvement in conflict resolution and Moldova's international relations is limited. The study concludes that effective EU engagement in the region is increasingly important and feasible, but its scope depends on Moldova's relations with the United States and Russia. Finally, the study offers recommendations for future EU policies directed at Moldova.