How Civil Wars Start

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A leading political scientist examines the alarming rise in global violent extremism and warns of the potential for a second civil war in the United States. Incidents of political violence are escalating, including a far-right militia's plot to kidnap Michigan's governor and the storming of the U.S. Capitol by armed Trump supporters. These events raise the question: are they isolated, or indicative of a larger trend? Barbara F. Walter, who has studied civil conflict in countries like Iraq and Sri Lanka, is increasingly concerned about the U.S. Both autocracies and healthy democracies tend to avoid civil war; it is the nations in the middle ground that are most at risk, a category that includes the U.S. The number of active civil wars worldwide has nearly doubled in the past two decades. Walter highlights the warning signs of conflict, including where wars typically begin, who instigates them, and the triggers involved. She identifies critical risk factors such as democratic backsliding and factionalization. Today's civil wars will differ from those of the past, starting with sporadic violence and fueled by social media, catching society off guard. In this urgent and insightful analysis, Walter redefines civil war for the modern era, offering a framework to confront and prevent this looming danger.