Expert Political Judgment

It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. . . . It would be nice if there were fewer partisans on television disguised as analysts and experts. . . . But the best lesson of Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for yourself.--Louis Menand, The New Yorker