Philip Tetlock Books

Everyone would benefit from better foresight, whether in finance, policy-making, or daily planning. However, people often struggle with accurate predictions. A landmark study by Wharton professor Philip Tetlock revealed that even experts' forecasts are only marginally better than chance. Yet, some experts possess genuine foresight, prompting Tetlock to explore the reasons behind this talent and whether it can be taught. In collaboration with Dan Gardner, Tetlock presents a comprehensive examination of prediction, drawing on extensive research and a large-scale forecasting tournament called the Good Judgment Project. This initiative involved thousands of ordinary individuals, including a filmmaker and a retired pipe installer, who successfully forecasted global events, outperforming benchmarks and even intelligence analysts with classified information. These exceptional forecasters, termed 'superforecasters,' demonstrate that effective prediction doesn't rely on advanced technology but on gathering diverse evidence, thinking probabilistically, collaborating, tracking performance, and embracing errors. Through compelling stories of both successful and failed forecasts, along with insights from prominent decision-makers, the authors reveal practical strategies for enhancing our predictive abilities across various domains, making this work a valuable resource for anyone seeking to improve their foresight.

From a leading social scientist comes a transformative exploration of the habits that enhance predictive abilities. Everyone can benefit from improved foresight, whether in investing, policy-making, or everyday planning. Yet, people are often poor at forecasting. A pivotal study by Wharton professor Philip Tetlock revealed that even experts perform only slightly better than chance. However, some experts excel at predictions, prompting Tetlock to investigate why. In collaboration with Dan Gardner, he presents a comprehensive analysis of prediction, drawing from extensive research and a significant forecasting tournament known as the Good Judgment Project. This initiative involved thousands of ordinary individuals, including a filmmaker and a retired pipe installer, who successfully forecasted global events, outpacing traditional benchmarks and even intelligence analysts with classified access. These individuals are termed "superforecasters." The authors illustrate how we can learn from them by sharing stories of both successful and failed forecasts, alongside insights from prominent decision-makers. They argue that effective forecasting relies on gathering diverse evidence, thinking probabilistically, collaborating, tracking outcomes, and being open to admitting mistakes. This groundbreaking work offers practical strategies to enhance our predictive skills across various domains, positioning itself as a modern classic.

It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. . . . It would be nice if there were fewer partisans on television disguised as analysts and experts. . . . But the best lesson of Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for yourself.--Louis Menand, The New Yorker

The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods.

Schopnost předpovídat budoucnost by byla pro každého z nás cenná, ať už při investicích, uvádění nových produktů na trh nebo plánování osobních aktivit. Avšak lidé obvykle nejsou dobří prognostici. Profesor Tetlock ve své studii z roku 2005 ukázal, že i odborné předpovědi jsou často jen o něco lepší než náhoda. Někteří lidé však mají výjimečnou schopnost předpovídat budoucnost, a Tetlock se poslední dekádu snažil zjistit, proč tomu tak je a zda se to dá naučit. Tetlock a novinář Dan Gardner přinášejí mistrovské dílo o předpovídání, které vychází z dlouholetého výzkumu a velké prognostické soutěže, kterou podpořila americká vláda. Projekt Dobrý úsudek zapojil desítky tisíc obyčejných lidí, kteří měli za úkol předpovídat světové události. Někteří z nich byli překvapivě úspěšní a překonali nejen ostatní účastníky, ale i akademické experty a analytiky zpravodajských služeb. Autoři ukazují, co se můžeme naučit od těchto „superpředpovídačů“ a přinášejí příběhy úspěšných i neúspěšných předpovědí. Dobrého předpovídání lze dosáhnout sběrem informací z různých zdrojů, pravděpodobnostním uvažováním, týmovou prací a ochotou připustit chybu. Kniha představuje efektivní a vědecky podloženou metodu, jak zlepšit schopnosti předvídat budoucí události v byznysu, politice i každodenním životě.