Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Radical uncertainty highlights the limitations of traditional probability in predicting future events, especially when historical data is inadequate. The narrative explores pivotal moments, such as President Obama's decision-making regarding Osama bin Laden and the unforeseen evolution of technology like smartphones. It critiques the reliability of financial advice that attempts to forecast long-term variables, emphasizing that many significant life events are inherently unpredictable and cannot be accurately assessed through standard statistical methods.