Predictive Analysis: An Unnecessary Risk in the Contemporary Operating Environment

The book critiques the reliance on predictive analysis within U.S. military doctrine, arguing that it is fundamentally flawed due to assumptions about adversaries' predictable behaviors. It highlights the challenges of applying traditional predictive methods in the current complex geopolitical landscape, where surprise and unpredictability prevail. The author advocates for a new intelligence approach that focuses on enemy capabilities rather than intentions, emphasizing a descriptive analytical method that adapts to uncertainty, enabling military forces to maintain the initiative.