The Big Caucasus

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Situated astride one of the world's key strategic crossroads, the "Big Caucasus" is increasingly a region in flux. In this report, Jeffrey Mankoff has masterfully analyzed the complex and myriad centrifugal and centripetal forces that drive this region simultaneously toward fragmentation and integration. A central premise of Mankoff's analysis is that both U.S. and Russian influence have declined relatively and that viewing regional developments principally through a lens of Russian-American competition obscures rather than illuminates regional dynamics and results in suboptimal policies. In his conclusion, Mankoff emphasizes that Washington's capacity to resolve existing conflicts depends to a great extent on accentuating the U.S. role as an honest broker rather than a party to one side or the other, notwithstanding the significant domestic political constraints on U.S. policymakers in this regard. At the end of the day, the onus is on political decisions taken by elites in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and various disputed regions who have the most leverage and responsibility for a more decisive direction for the Big Caucasus toward deeper fragmentation or integration.