This paper estimates the economic vulnerability of developing countries to disruptions in global value chains due to COVID-19. Analyzing trade data from 12 countries, it finds that demand and supply shocks can reduce GDP by up to 5.4%. Southeast Asian countries, though highly integrated in GVCs, benefit from diverse suppliers, mitigating economic downturns. Sub-Saharan Africa shows less impact due to lower dependencies.
This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the long-term industrial development prospects of latecomer economies. It analyzes how three megatrends—digitalization, economic power shifts, and environmental sustainability—are reshaping industrialization opportunities and barriers. The pandemic has not fundamentally altered these trends but has accelerated or decelerated some, such as online trading and potential reshoring. The study concludes with policy recommendations for enhancing economic resilience and fostering green development.