Clara Brandi Book order

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the long-term industrial development prospects of latecomer economies. It analyzes how three megatrends—digitalization, economic power shifts, and environmental sustainability—are reshaping industrialization opportunities and barriers. The pandemic has not fundamentally altered these trends but has accelerated or decelerated some, such as online trading and potential reshoring. The study concludes with policy recommendations for enhancing economic resilience and fostering green development.

This paper estimates the economic vulnerability of developing countries to disruptions in global value chains due to COVID-19. Analyzing trade data from 12 countries, it finds that demand and supply shocks can reduce GDP by up to 5.4%. Southeast Asian countries, though highly integrated in GVCs, benefit from diverse suppliers, mitigating economic downturns. Sub-Saharan Africa shows less impact due to lower dependencies.

Trade finance can be an important driver for international trade. We analyse a panel data set on export credit insurance and trade flows for 215 destinations for the period 2005-2013 and find that imports to developing countries are heavily supported by a higher flow of trade credit insurance.

The rise of emerging middle classes around the world has profound implications for global development. The paper presents a novel middle class typology that illustrates the existence of different types of middle classes and points to fruitful avenues for future research and policy debates