Robert J. Shiller Books

Why the irrational exuberance of investors hasn't disappeared since the financial crisis In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.

Examines the impact of a rapidly evolving global economy on the twenty-first century financial world and presents six fundamental principles for using information technology and advanced financial theory to hedge risk.

Acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller argue for the essential role of government in restoring economic confidence in the wake of the global financial crisis. They highlight how psychological forces, termed "animal spirits," have jeopardized national wealth, from blind faith in rising housing prices to declining trust in capital markets. Challenging traditional economic wisdom, Akerlof and Shiller propose a transformative vision that emphasizes the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking. They revive the concept of animal spirits, originally introduced by John Maynard Keynes, to explain the psychological factors that contributed to the Great Depression and subsequent recovery. Akerlof and Shiller contend that managing these forces requires government intervention, as laissez-faire approaches are insufficient. They explore the pervasive impacts of animal spirits—such as confidence, fear, bad faith, and fairness—on contemporary economic life, critiquing Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution for overlooking these dynamics. This work provides a roadmap for addressing current financial challenges, illustrating how leaders can effectively channel the powerful psychological forces influencing today's global economy.

The reputation of the financial industry could hardly be worse than it is today in the painful aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. In this book, the author argues that, rather than condemning finance, we need to reclaim it for the common good. It shows how society can once again harness the power of finance for the greater good.

The subprime mortgage crisis has already wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people and now it threatens to derail the US economy and economies around the world. In this book, the author reveals the origins of this crisis and puts forward bold measures to solve it.

Economists have traditionally relied on financial aggregates like price-earnings ratios and asset prices for forecasts, often with limited success. Robert Shiller enhances this approach by incorporating insights from mass psychology, leading to the development of behavioral economics. He explores how psychological factors shape economic events and narratives, explaining the emergence and viral spread of popular economic stories and their impact on economic developments. In the preface, Shiller introduces narrative economics, referencing the Great Depression and World War II, and illustrates a contemporary example with the viral rise of Bitcoin. He discusses how narrative economics intersects with other disciplines and draws parallels to epidemiology in understanding how ideas spread. Shiller also examines recurring economic narratives, such as the gold standard, real estate booms, and stock market fluctuations. He concludes with a vision for future research in narrative economics, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives in shaping economic realities.

Since Adam Smith, the prevailing belief in economics has been that free markets enhance our material well-being through an "invisible hand." However, Nobel Prize-winning economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge this notion in a compelling way, arguing that markets can also be harmful. They assert that sellers will exploit our psychological weaknesses and ignorance for profit, manipulating and deceiving us. Instead of being purely beneficial, markets are filled with tricks and traps that "phish" us as "phools." This work introduces a new perspective in economics, emphasizing that markets both provide and take away. Through numerous stories, Akerlof and Shiller illustrate how phishing impacts nearly every aspect of life. We often overspend and then struggle to meet our financial obligations. The financial system experiences cycles of boom and bust, and we find ourselves swayed by advertising. Money distorts our political landscape, and we frequently overpay for gym memberships, cars, homes, and credit cards. Pharmaceutical companies market drugs that may offer little benefit or even pose risks. The authors delve into the pervasive nature of manipulation and deception across these domains, explaining a paradox: despite unprecedented levels of material comfort, many lead lives of quiet desperation. The book also highlights individuals who resist economic trickery and suggests that increased knowledge, reform, and re

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主羅伯特·希勒借鑒了流行病學模型,為讀者提供了思考流行敘事影響經濟和社會生活的全新視角.通過諸多重大事件的回顧,輔以資料分析,希勒展示了流行敘事對歷史進程及其中的個體人生的深刻影響,表明對這些流行敘事的經濟學思考,可以提高對金融危機,衰退,蕭條和其他經濟事件的預測能力,幫助我們未雨綢繆,將各種負面衝擊的危害降到更低.