Robert J. Shiller Book order

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主羅伯特·希勒借鑒了流行病學模型,為讀者提供了思考流行敘事影響經濟和社會生活的全新視角.通過諸多重大事件的回顧,輔以資料分析,希勒展示了流行敘事對歷史進程及其中的個體人生的深刻影響,表明對這些流行敘事的經濟學思考,可以提高對金融危機,衰退,蕭條和其他經濟事件的預測能力,幫助我們未雨綢繆,將各種負面衝擊的危害降到更低.

„Tech-Aktien steigen immer!“ „Immobilienpreise fallen nie!“ Stimmt das wirklich? Ob wahr oder nicht, solche Narrative, oder einfacher gesagt Geschichten, beeinflussen das Verhalten von Menschen und somit auch die Wirtschaft massiv. Wie entstehen Narrative? Wie gehen sie viral, wie gewinnen sie an Einfluss, wann verlieren sie diesen wieder? Welche Auswirkungen haben sie? Und, last, but not least: Wie lassen sich mit ihnen ökonomische Zusammenhänge und Entwicklungen besser verstehen und vorhersagen? Diese Fragen untersucht Wirtschafts-Nobelpreisträger Robert J. Shiller in seinem vielleicht wichtigsten Buch.

"Economists have long based their forecasts on financial aggregates such as price-earnings ratios, asset prices, and exchange rate fluctuations, and used them to produce statistically informed speculations about the future--with limited success. Robert Shiller employs such aggregates in his own forecasts, but has famously complemented them with observations about the influence of mass psychology on certain events. This approach has come to be known as behavioral economics. How can economists effectively capture the effects of psychology and its influence on economic events and change? Shiller attempts to help us better understand how psychology affects events by explaining how popular economic stories arise, how they grow viral, and ultimately how they drive economic developments. After defining narrative economics in the book's preface with allusions to the advent of both the Great Depression and to World War II, Shiller presents an example of a recent economic narrative gone viral in the story of Bitcoin. Next, he explains how narrative economics works with reference to how other disciplines incorporate narrative into their analyses and also to how epidemiology explains how disease goes viral. He then presents accounts of recurring economic narratives, including the gold standard, real estate booms, war and depression, and stock market booms and crashes. He ends his book with a blueprint for future research by economists on narrative economics"-- Provided by publisher

En esta edición revisada, actualizada y ampliada de su bestseller del New York Times, el economista ganador del Premio Nobel Robert Shiller, que ya advirtió de la burbuja tecnológica y de la de la vivienda, ahora nos alerta de que los signos de la exuberancia irracional de los inversores no han hecho más que aumentar desde la crisis financiera de 2008-2009. Con los precios de las acciones y los bonos disparados en Estados Unidos y el incremento del precio de la vivienda en muchos países, el boom post-subprime bien puede llegar a convertirse una demostración más del argumento de Shiller sobre la volatilidad impulsada por los vaivenes psicológicos inherente a todos los mercados activos

The author argues that investor euphoria and discouragement can cause extreme fluctuations in the stock, bond, and housing markets and presents advice for investors on protecting themselves from future bubbles.

Akerlof and Shiller argue that markets harm as well as help us. As long as there is profit to be made, sellers will systematically exploit our psychological weaknesses and our ignorance through manipulation and deception. Based on the intuitive idea that markets both give and take away, they show how phishing affects everyone, in almost every walk of life. We spend our money up to the limit, and then worry about how to pay the next month's bills. The financial system soars, then crashes. In doing so they explain a paradox: why, at a time when we are better off than ever before in history, all too many of us are leading lives of quiet desperation.

Argues that finance should be defined not merely as the manipulation of money or the management of risk but as the stewardship of society's assets, and that new ways to rechannel financial creativity to benefit society as a whole are needed.

The reputation of the financial industry could hardly be worse than it is today in the painful aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. In this book, the author argues that, rather than condemning finance, we need to reclaim it for the common good. It shows how society can once again harness the power of finance for the greater good.

Akerlof and Shiller argue that economics has long overlooked the non-rational factors, or "Animal Spirits," influencing human behavior. They emphasize the need to consider human behavior in economic theory rather than relying solely on market faith. This book presents their research and outlines a vision for future economic thinking and action.

From acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, the case for why government is needed to restore confidence in the economy The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government—simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life—such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes—and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits—the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today.