The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis

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This book outlines argumentative tools and strategies for guiding policy decisions amid significant uncertainty. Contributing authors delve into philosophical and argumentation analysis methods, demonstrating their application in structuring discussions on complex policy issues. The first section systematically addresses decision-making when multiple perspectives and unknown consequences are present. Readers will learn how to utilize argumentation tools for prioritizing uncertain dangers, framing decisions, selecting appropriate time frames, and systematically evaluating various options. The second section presents case studies illustrating argumentation in practice across areas such as climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, and financial markets. One example involves applying argumentation analysis to proposals for addressing climate change through technological interventions, like dispersing reflective aerosols in the stratosphere. Despite thorough investigations, uncertainties about potential risks persist. Conventional risk analysis often falls short, as it assumes all risks are identified. In contrast, the argumentative approach to uncertainty management effectively organizes discussions, providing a framework for navigating complex decision-making scenarios.