Putin and the Return of History

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Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has significantly altered the course of history. Following the collapse of Soviet communism, the West believed in the supremacy of liberal democracy, asserting that a US-led unipolar world had the right to impose democratic values on others. This triumphalism shaped Western interactions with Russia for two decades, but history has shown that predictions about the future can be perilous. In February 2022, Putin demonstrated this unpredictability. Initially, Putin seemed inclined toward cooperation with the West, expressing interest in joining the EU or NATO and advocating for free-market democracy and civil rights. However, the Putin of the 2020s has transformed into an autocratic nationalist, focused on domestic repression and anti-Western militarism. This raises critical questions: Was his early support for democracy genuine, or was it a façade? Did he undergo a change in perspective, and if so, what catalyzed this shift? The exploration of these questions is set against the backdrop of Russia's extensive history, revealing the forces and myths that have influenced Putin's governance. Themes include the enduring fear of external encirclement, the prioritization of state over individual rights, collectivist ideologies that justify sacrifice in warfare, the use of deception, the intertwining of religion with statecraft, and the belief in a mission for Great Russia to reshape the world.