Syrian Requiem

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The Syrian crisis is evolving, with the full-scale civil war seemingly concluding, allowing for a more reflective examination of the situation. This concise analysis explores several critical questions: How did peaceful protests in Southern Syria escalate into a violent civil war? Why has the political opposition to Bashar al-Assad remained fragmented and ineffective? What led to radical Jihadi Islamists dominating the military opposition? How did the conflict become a focal point in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry? What accounts for the West's ambivalent stance toward the rebellion? Additionally, it examines the evolution of U.S. policy under the Obama administration and the reluctance of both Obama and Trump to invest heavily in the conflict. The status quo's stability is questioned, considering the potential for renewed violence in different forms. According to Rabinovitch, while the Syrian regime and its allies, including Russia and Iran, have emerged as victors, this victory is limited. Assad controls only about 60 percent of the territory and relies heavily on Iran and Russia, effectively making Syria a vassal state. This dependency suggests that the country will remain in crisis, despite the cessation of full-scale civil war. In the concluding chapter, policy recommendations for the U.S. are presented.